Cnotes Thursday's WNBA Best Bets !

CNOTES · Jul 14, 2011

Storm try to hand San Antonio its 4th straight loss

SEATTLE STORM (7-4)

at SAN ANTONIO SILVER STARS (7-4)

Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -3, Total: 151

The Silver Stars are cooling off at the wrong time, as defending champion Seattle has adjusted to life without Lauren Jackson and visits San Antonio on Thursday night after a couple of impressive victories.

The Storm are 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS against San Antonio over the past three seasons and the way the two teams have played recently makes SEATTLE the pick to win again.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend showing Thursday night should be more of the same.

SAN ANTONIO is 4-16 ATS (20.0%, -13.6 Units) after a game where a team made 80% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 73.4, OPPONENT 81.8 - (Rating = 3*).

The Silver Stars have played four straight games under the total, but this three-star trend expects the OVER to occur on Thursday.

SAN ANTONIO is 16-3 OVER (84.2%, +12.7 Units) in home games off a home loss against a division rival since 1997. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 78.1, OPPONENT 73.9 - (Rating = 3*).

Seattle has been without reigning MVP Lauren Jackson since June 21. Jackson will miss up to three months after undergoing surgery on her left hip. But the Storm have gone 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) without her, including impressive back-to-back wins over Los Angeles and Washington at home. The Storm have not played well on the road this year though. They’re just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS away from Seattle.

Meanwhile, after a 7-1 start (SU and ATS) San Antonio has dropped three straight (SU and ATS). After being swept in a home-and-home with New York, the Silver Stars were blitzed at home by a short-handed Los Angeles team, 84-74, on Tuesday night.

They led by eight at the end of the first quarter, but over the final three quarters were outscored by 18 by a Sparks team that was without Candace Parker and had lost five straight. San Antonio point guard Becky Hammon was just 2-for-14 from the field and missed all seven of her three-point attempts in the loss. She’s shooting just 39.1% from the field at home this season.

Since blowing out Tulsa in a home-and-home to start the season, the Silver Stars are 1-4 SU and ATS as a favorite.

CNOTES · Jul 14, 2011

WNBA
Dunkel

Seattle at San Antonio
The Silver Stars look to take advantage of a Seattle team that is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 meetings in San Antonio. San Antonio is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-5). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 14

Game 601-602: Seattle at San Antonio (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 111.243; San Antonio 117.279
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 146
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-5); Under

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, July 14

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SEATTLE (7 - 4) at SAN ANTONIO (7 - 4) - 7/14/2011, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997.
SEATTLE is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 7-1 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Thursday, July 14

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN ANTONIO
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Seattle is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
San Antonio is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
San Antonio is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Seattle

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WNBA

Thursday, July 14

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Lady luck: Thursday's best WNBA bets
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Seattle Storm at San Antonio Silver Stars (-3.5, 149)

For a while, it looked like the Silver Stars were finally over the hump in the Western Conference, jumping out a 7-1 start and bringing WNBA bettors along for the ride.

However, things have gone sour in San Antonio. The Silver Stars have dropped three straight contests, failing to cover the spread in each of those outings. Their most recent defeat was an 84-74 loss to the shorthanded Los Angeles Sparks, falling short as 7-point home favorites Tuesday night.

Defense has been the biggest cause of this slide. San Antonio is giving up more than 80 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot 50 percent from the floor during this three-game funk. The Sparks took full advantage of the Silver Stars’ flat defense, shooting 36 for 67, including a 28-point second quarter Tuesday.

“It was a rough game for us,” Silver Stars head coach Dan Hughes told the San Antonio Express. “I didn't like the way we defended. We started off well, but from about the second quarter on ...”

San Antonio has hit the wall offensively, as well. The Silver Stars currently rank second in the league in points, averaging over 87 per game, but have failed to crack the 80-point mark in each of the past three losses. They shot just 35.5 percent from the field and got only five points from leading scorer Becky Hammon versus Los Angeles.

“It's not the end of the world,” guard Jia Perkins told reporters after the loss. “We still have a lot of basketball to play. We've just got to bounce back. (Today) we'll worry about Seattle, so we don't have much time to fix anything, but we have to come into practice determined and just go to work.”

Seattle continues to march on without MVP center Lauren Jackson, who is out until at least the playoffs after undergoing hip surgery. The Storm are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS since Jackson went down, winning back-to-back contests heading into Thursday.

These teams have not met this season, but Seattle has won the last six head-to-head contests (4-1-1 ATS) and is 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS over their last 10 meetings.

Pick: Seattle